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Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

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October 14, 2022
in Data analytics
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Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales
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Abstract

Background

Present UK vaccination coverage is to supply future COVID-19 booster doses to people at excessive danger of great sickness from COVID-19, however it’s nonetheless unsure which teams of the inhabitants may benefit most. In response to an pressing request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to establish danger elements for extreme COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise) in people who had accomplished their main COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had acquired the primary booster vaccine.

Strategies

We constructed potential cohorts throughout all 4 UK nations by way of linkages of main care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality knowledge on 30 million individuals. We included people who acquired main vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer–BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca) vaccines in our preliminary analyses. We then restricted analyses to these given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a extreme COVID-19 end result between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression fashions and calculated adjusted price ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between danger elements and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise. We adjusted for a variety of potential covariates, together with age, intercourse, comorbidities, and former SARS-CoV-2 an infection. Stratified analyses had been carried out by vaccine kind. We then did pooled analyses throughout UK nations utilizing fixed-effect meta-analyses.

Findings

Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 people accomplished their main vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 people acquired a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the first vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those that acquired their booster had extreme COVID-19 outcomes. The chance of extreme COVID-19 outcomes decreased after receiving the booster (price change: 8·8 occasions per 1000 person-years to 7·6 occasions per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18–49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45–3·75]), these with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07–9·97]), being male (male vs feminine; 1·23 [1·20–1·26]), and people with sure underlying well being situations—specifically, people receiving immunosuppressants (sure vs no; 5·80 [5·53–6·09])—and people with persistent kidney illness (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90–4·74]) remained at excessive danger regardless of the preliminary booster. People with a historical past of COVID-19 an infection had been at decreased danger (contaminated ≥9 months earlier than booster dose vs no earlier an infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29–0·58]).

Interpretation

Older individuals, these with multimorbidity, and people with particular underlying well being situations stay at elevated danger of COVID-19 hospitalisation and demise after the preliminary vaccine booster and may, due to this fact, be prioritised for extra boosters, together with novel optimised variations, and the growing array of COVID-19 therapeutics.

Funding

Nationwide Core Research–Immunity, UK Analysis and Innovation (Medical Analysis Council), Well being Information Analysis UK, the Scottish Authorities, and the College of Edinburgh.

Introduction

COVID-19 vaccination programmes have been rolled out globally as the important thing technique to regulate and minimise the impression of the COVID-19 pandemic.

1

Our World in Information
Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations.

Three vaccines have primarily been used within the UK—particularly, BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer–BioNTech), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca), and mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna).

2

UK Well being Safety Company
COVID-19: the inexperienced ebook, chapter 14a.

Within the UK, the first vaccination schedule is 2 doses for almost all of the inhabitants or three doses for people who find themselves immunosuppressed. Booster doses have been supplied within the UK since September, 2021, initially for teams at excessive danger of great sickness from COVID-19. Nonetheless, the fast emergence of the extra transmissible omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern (relative to delta [B.1.617.2])—which was first seen within the UK in late November, 2021, and have become the dominant variant by mid-December—led to appreciable concern in public, skilled, and authorities circles, leading to a coverage initiative to fast-track the roll-out of the booster vaccine, together with to youthful individuals (all these aged 40 years and older), in an try to forestall one more UK-wide lockdown over Christmas, 2021. From Nov 29, 2021, booster doses had been then prolonged to these aged 18 years and over, with a beneficial hole of three months after main vaccination.

3

COVID-19: booster doses to be supplied to 30 million individuals in UK.

, 

4

  • Sheikh A
  • Kerr S
  • Woolhouse M
  • et al.
Severity of omicron variant of concern and effectiveness of vaccine boosters towards symptomatic illness in Scotland (EAVE II): a nationwide cohort examine with nested test-negative design.

, 

5

NHS
The right way to get a booster dose of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine.

Analysis in context

Proof earlier than this examine

We searched PubMed, medRxiv, and SSRN on June 27, 2022, for English research investigating extreme COVID-19 outcomes after vaccination utilizing the search phrases “COVID-19 breakthrough infections (MeSH)”, “COVID-19 vaccines (MeSH)”, and “COVID-19 (MeSH)”. Our searches recognized 133 research. Earlier proof has constantly proven that vaccination with the primary booster dose reduces the danger of SARS-CoV-2 an infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation and demise. An evaluation of nationwide knowledge from Israel estimated first booster dose of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine effectiveness of 92% (95% CI 82–97) towards extreme COVID-19. One other nationwide examine from Qatar within the omicron period estimated vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 towards extreme COVID-19 as 77% (95% CI 56–88). Now we have beforehand reported on danger elements for extreme COVID-19 outcomes after first and second vaccine doses of the first schedule, however there’s little population-based proof concerning the elements related to COVID-19-related hospitalisation and demise after the primary booster dose within the omicron period.

Added worth of this examine

We discovered an elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes starting 10 weeks after finishing the first vaccination schedule, with this danger decreasing after the primary booster dose. This UK-wide evaluation, along with confirming a number of the beforehand recognized danger elements for extreme COVID-19 outcomes equivalent to older age and use of immunosuppressants, has additionally highlighted extra danger elements, equivalent to persistent kidney illness, neurological issues, coronary heart failure, and persistent obstructive pulmonary illness. Most significantly, we reveal a substantive elevated danger related to excessive multimorbidity.

Implications of all of the accessible proof

Because the pandemic continues to evolve, vaccination programmes and mitigation methods have to evolve to prioritise these at highest danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes. This UK-wide population-based investigation has discovered that, after the primary vaccine booster, older individuals, these with excessive multimorbidity, and people with sure underlying well being situations stay at highest danger of COVID-19-related hospitalisation and demise. The UK’s Joint Fee on Vaccination and Immunisation ought to think about prioritising these people for the forthcoming autumn booster dose programme, ideally with novel optimised vaccines, and COVID-19 therapeutics.

Though the first vaccination schedule and subsequent booster provide appreciable safety towards COVID-19-related hospitalisation and demise, rising knowledge counsel that some people stay at significantly excessive danger.

6

  • Kuhlmann C
  • Mayer CK
  • Claassen M
  • et al.
Breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 omicron regardless of mRNA vaccine booster dose.

Work in Israel confirmed that, though a booster decreased the danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise), these occasions continued at a price of 1·68 occasions per 1000 person-years.

7

  • Bar-On YM
  • Goldberg Y
  • Mandel M
  • et al.
Safety of BNT162b2 vaccine booster towards Covid-19 in Israel.

In one other examine performed in Israel,

8

  • Barda N
  • Dagan N
  • Cohen C
  • et al.
Effectiveness of a 3rd dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for stopping extreme outcomes in Israel: an observational examine.

vaccine effectiveness of the primary booster dose towards extreme COVID-19 sickness was estimated to be 92%. In a examine by Arbel and colleagues,

9

  • Arbel R
  • Hammerman A
  • Sergienko R
  • et al.
BNT162b2 vaccine booster and mortality as a consequence of COVID-19.

in contrast with people who weren’t boosted, COVID-19 mortality was decreased by 90% in people who acquired a booster dose. Though these research counsel that the primary booster dose has been useful, there’s little proof about elements related to extreme COVID-19 outcomes within the boosted inhabitants.

Our earlier Scotland-wide evaluation

10

  • Agrawal U
  • Katikireddi SV
  • McCowan C
  • et al.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million individuals in Scotland (EAVE II): a potential cohort examine.

reported that older age, multimorbidity, hospitalisation within the 4 weeks earlier than vaccination, working in a high-risk occupation, being a care dwelling resident, socioeconomic deprivation, being male, and being an ex-smoker elevated the danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes after the primary dose of the first vaccination schedule. Nonetheless, this evaluation was performed when the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant was dominant. It’s essential to characterise elements related to elevated danger for people after the primary booster dose in order that they are often prioritised for future boosters and probably even be supplied COVID-19 therapeutics.

11

WHO
Interim assertion on using extra booster doses of Emergency Use Listed mRNA vaccines towards COVID-19.

Present UK vaccination coverage is to supply future booster doses to people at excessive danger, however it’s nonetheless unsure which teams of the inhabitants may benefit most.

12

BBC
Weak adults set for autumn COVID booster jab.

In response to an pressing request from the UK’s Joint Fee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), we sought to explain the medical and demographic traits of people related to elevated danger of COVID-19-related hospitalisation and mortality at 14 days or extra after receiving the booster dose of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine. Working with population-based knowledge from throughout the UK’s 4 nations supplied us the chance to populate knowledge gaps in particular person nation datasets (eg, for HIV) and generate exact estimates for uncommon danger teams.

Strategies

Research design and inhabitants

A statistical evaluation plan was developed earlier than we did the evaluation and was printed on the EAVE II web site. We used Reporting of Research Performed utilizing Observational Routinely-collected Information (additionally termed RECORD) and Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Research in Epidemiology (additionally termed STROBE) checklists to information clear reporting (appendix pp 3–7).

14

  • Benchimol EI
  • Smeeth L
  • Guttmann A
  • et al.
The REporting of research Performed utilizing Observational Routinely-collected well being Information (RECORD) assertion.

, 

15

  • von Elm E
  • Altman DG
  • Egger M
  • Pocock SJ
  • Gøtzsche PC
  • Vandenbroucke JP
The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Research in Epidemiology (STROBE) assertion: tips for reporting observational research.

We used 4 close to real-time nationwide health-care datasets saved in separate safe Trusted Analysis Environments (TREs) in England, Northern Eire, Scotland, and Wales. Every of those datasets included info on medical and demographic traits of every particular person, their vaccination standing and kind of vaccine used, and knowledge on constructive SARS-CoV-2 an infection from RT-PCR and subsequent COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise. We had been unable to report on an infection in the neighborhood setting based mostly on home-antigen testing that was not confirmed with RT-PCR.

Our cohorts consisted of people aged 18 years and older who had accomplished their main vaccine schedule (first and second doses) with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines solely or had subsequent booster doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022. Nearly all of main vaccination schedules used BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 as a result of these vaccines had been the primary to be licensed to be used within the UK. The mRNA-1273 vaccine grew to become accessible greater than 4 months later and was, due to this fact, nearly completely utilized in people aged 40 years or youthful. The small numbers in strata for the teams can be insufficiently powered for sturdy estimates, so the people who acquired mRNA-1273 as their main vaccine had been excluded from this evaluation. For people aged 12 years or older with main or acquired immunodeficiency, receiving immunosuppressive or immunomodulating remedy, with persistent immune-mediated inflammatory illness, or receiving high-dose steroids, the first vaccine schedule included a 3rd half-vaccine dose.

2

UK Well being Safety Company
COVID-19: the inexperienced ebook, chapter 14a.

Comply with-up was from 14 days after finishing the first vaccination schedule till COVID-19-related hospitalisation, COVID-19-related demise, or the top of the examine interval (ie, Feb 28, 2022). We excluded occasions that occurred throughout the first 14 days after completion of the first vaccination schedule to permit time for a full immune response to be mounted.

10

  • Agrawal U
  • Katikireddi SV
  • McCowan C
  • et al.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million individuals in Scotland (EAVE II): a potential cohort examine.

For a similar purpose, the 14-day interval after a booster dose was counted because the publicity interval after the first vaccine dose.

We sought to explain the medical and demographic traits and estimate danger elements for people who had extreme COVID-19 outcomes after finishing the first vaccination schedule or subsequent booster dose in the course of the interval when the omicron variant was dominant. Due to this fact, we included occasions that occurred between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022. Two separate analyses had been carried out to attain this. For the primary evaluation, we included all people who accomplished their main vaccine schedule of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Many of those people then went on to obtain the booster dose. For the second evaluation, we due to this fact included all people who additionally acquired the primary booster dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines. As a part of this second evaluation, we additionally estimated the danger of extreme COVID-19 end result related to any of 36 underlying medical situations recognized utilizing the Qcovid danger algorithm.

16

  • Clift AK
  • Coupland CAC
  • Keogh RH
  • et al.
Dwelling danger prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for danger of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: nationwide derivation and validation cohort examine.

In England, moral approval was granted by the Well being Analysis Authority London Central Analysis Ethics Committee (reference quantity REC reference 21/HRA/2786; built-in analysis software system quantity 30174). In Northern Eire, examine approval was granted by the Sincere Dealer Service (HBS) Governance Board (venture quantity 064; the HBS course of doesn’t require separate Nationwide Analysis Ethics Service governance approval). In Scotland, moral approval was granted by the Nationwide Analysis Ethics Service Committee (Southeast Scotland 02; reference quantity 12/SS/0201), and the approval for knowledge linkage was granted by the Public Profit and Privateness Panel for Well being and Social Care (reference quantity 1920–0279). In Wales, analysis carried out throughout the Safe Anonymised Data Linkage Databank was performed with the permission and approval of the unbiased Data Governance Evaluation Panel (venture quantity 0911). Particular person written affected person consent was not required for this examine.

Research datasets

Our analytical method was to conduct separate, equal analyses inside every nation, after which generate pooled estimates utilizing fixed-effect meta-analyses for the UK as a complete. In England, we used the Oxford-Royal Faculty of Basic Practitioners (RCGP) Analysis and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database, one in all Europe’s oldest sentinel networks that has a close to real-time feed of main care knowledge and is nationally consultant, masking round 32% of the English inhabitants (N>19 million). The RSC helps the UK Well being Safety Company’s immunisation and vaccine-preventable illness and real-time syndromic surveillance. Information had been pseudonymised within the Oxford RCGP Medical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) TRE. Pseudonymisation was carried out utilizing a Nationwide Well being Service (NHS) Digital-approved course of, permitting pseudonymised NHS numbers (distinctive nationwide IDs) to hyperlink particular person patient-level knowledge to different datasets to complement main care knowledge; these datasets included the second technology surveillance system for Pillar 1 (laboratory testing inside NHS services) and Pillar 2 (group take a look at services arrange in the course of the pandemic) COVID-19 an infection outcomes, the nationwide immunisation administration service for vaccine uptake, Hospital Episode Statistics for hospitalisation and intensive care unit admissions, and Workplace for Nationwide Statistics knowledge for certificated explanation for demise.

17

Leston M, Elson WH, Watson C, et al. Representativeness, vaccination uptake and COVID medical outcomes 2020–21 within the UK’s Oxford-RCGP Analysis and Surveillance Community: cohort profile. JMIR Public Well being Surveill (in press).

In Northern Eire, vaccination knowledge from the Vaccine Administration System had been linked to related datasets utilizing an anonymised examine identifier that changed every particular person’s distinctive well being and care quantity to assemble the cohort, masking 1·9 million people (whole inhabitants). These datasets had been: inhabitants knowledge from the Nationwide Well being Authority Data System (recording eligibility for well being care in Northern Eire, which included date of demise); medicines distributed by group pharmacists from the improved prescribing database (extra particulars can be found within the appendix [p 10]); and COVID-19 testing knowledge from the Northern Eire centralised testing register, which included Pillar 1, Pillar 2, and different sources (equivalent to journey and point-of-care testing). COVID-19-related hospital admissions had been recognized utilizing the Affected person Administration System, which captured all acute hospital websites in Northern Eire. Main care session and diagnostic knowledge weren’t accessible for Northern Eire; due to this fact, medicine dispensation was used as a proxy measure for comorbidities.
In Scotland, the Early Pandemic Analysis and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) platform

18

  • Mulholland RH
  • Vasileiou E
  • Simpson CR
  • et al.
Cohort profile: Early Pandemic Analysis and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) Database.

used the Neighborhood Well being Index quantity, which is a novel identifier utilized in all health-care contacts throughout Scotland, to deterministically hyperlink main care knowledge on 5·4 million individuals (round 99% of the inhabitants) from 940 normal practices, secondary care knowledge from Scottish Morbidity Document 01 and Speedy Preliminary Inpatient Information, laboratory knowledge from Digital Communication of Surveillance in Scotland, vaccination standing knowledge from the Turas Vaccination Administration Software, and mortality knowledge from Nationwide Data of Scotland.

In Wales, the Safe Anonymised Data Linkage Databank platform

19

  • Lyons RA
  • Jones KH
  • John G
  • et al.
The SAIL databank: linking a number of well being and social care datasets.

, 

20

  • Ford DV
  • Jones KH
  • Verplancke JP
  • et al.
The SAIL Databank: constructing a nationwide structure for e-health analysis and analysis.

used Anonymised Data Linkage Subject, masking 3·2 million people (whole inhabitants), which is a pseudonymised distinctive identifier utilized in all health-care contacts throughout Wales, to hyperlink population-level main care data of 329 (84%) of 391 Basic Practitioner practices throughout Wales, all hospital admissions, and RT-PCR testing outcomes for all the inhabitants from a cohort designed for learning COVID-19-related outcomes.

Outcomes

Our main end result of curiosity was extreme COVID-19 outcomes, outlined as COVID-19-related hospital admission or demise, 14 days or extra after finishing the first vaccine schedule or after the primary booster dose. A COVID-19-related hospital admission was outlined as a hospital admission with both a constructive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR take a look at inside 14 days earlier than admission and any purpose of admission, or COVID-19 as purpose for admission or a constructive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR take a look at outcome throughout an admission, through which COVID-19 was not the rationale for admission (appendix p 1). COVID-19-related mortality was outlined as both demise for any purpose inside 28 days of a constructive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR take a look at or if COVID-19 was recorded as the first purpose for demise on the demise certificates (appendix p 1).

Inhabitants traits and covariates

Traits of curiosity had been outlined at baseline and included age, intercourse, ethnicity, city or rural place of residence (which is a measure of rurality based mostly on residential settlement),

10

  • Agrawal U
  • Katikireddi SV
  • McCowan C
  • et al.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million individuals in Scotland (EAVE II): a potential cohort examine.

BMI, SARS-CoV-2 an infection earlier than the first dose of the vaccine (categorized as 10 assessments), the interval between first and second vaccine doses (categorized as 3–6 weeks, 7–8 weeks, 9–10 weeks, 11–12 weeks, and >13 weeks), health-care administrative areas (NHS areas in England, native councils in Northern Eire, and well being boards in Scotland and in Wales; outcomes for administrative areas aren’t proven on this Article), socioeconomic deprivation standing (based mostly on quintiles of Index of A number of Deprivation in England, Northern Eire A number of Deprivation Measure in Northern Eire, Scottish Index of A number of Deprivation in Scotland, and Welsh Index of A number of Deprivation in Wales

21

NISRA
Northern Eire A number of Deprivation Measure 2017 (NIMDM2017).

, 

22

Ministry of Housing Communities & Native Authorities
English indices of deprivation 2019.

), and the variety of pre-existing comorbidities beforehand recognized to be related to extreme COVID-19 end result (the variations in measurement between nations are detailed within the Strategies part within the appendix [p 10]).

23

  • Agrawal U
  • Katikireddi SV
  • McCowan C
  • et al.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million individuals in Scotland (EAVE II): a potential cohort examine.

The whole record of comorbidities included within the variety of pre-existing comorbidities and included as a part of the second evaluation is listed within the appendix (pp 8–9). We examined time since vaccination in intervals of three–9 weeks, 10–19 weeks, and ≥20 weeks from completion of the first vaccination schedule, and three–5 weeks, 6–8 weeks, and 9 weeks or extra for the booster doses individually. To permit for variation in background ranges of group an infection, we cut up the information by calendar week. We examined RT-PCR take a look at outcomes to find out what quantity of SARS-CoV-2-positive assessments every day had been because of the omicron variant. Information urged that omicron was dominant after Dec 14, 2021 (appendix p 2). We then included all of the occasions (extreme COVID-19 outcomes) after Dec 20, 2021, to permit for the recognized lag between an infection and extreme outcomes.

Statistical evaluation

Information governance preparations didn’t allow the sharing of individual-level knowledge between the 4 TREs. Due to this fact, we first carried out the evaluation in every TRE after which pooled the estimates utilizing fixed-effect meta-analyses. We calculated the frequency and price per 1000 person-years of extreme COVID-19 outcomes for all demographic and medical elements. We used generalised linear fashions, assuming a Poisson distribution with person-time as an offset that represented the time in danger, as an approximation to a Cox proportional hazards mannequin to derive price ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs for the affiliation between demographic and medical elements and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise. The adjusted RRs (aRRs) for time since receiving the vaccine dose had been estimated for all vaccines mixed, in addition to for every vaccine individually. The fashions had been adjusted for age, intercourse, socioeconomic deprivation standing, city versus rural place of residence, BMI, variety of pre-existing comorbidities, the hole between the primary and second vaccine doses, historical past of SARS-CoV-2 an infection, variety of earlier RT-PCR assessments, well being board (knowledge not proven), and weekly prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 an infection in the neighborhood. We chosen these probably necessary demographic and medical traits of curiosity based mostly on our earlier work,

10

  • Agrawal U
  • Katikireddi SV
  • McCowan C
  • et al.
COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations in 2·57 million individuals in Scotland (EAVE II): a potential cohort examine.

situations beforehand recognized by QCOVID as excessive danger,

16

  • Clift AK
  • Coupland CAC
  • Keogh RH
  • et al.
Dwelling danger prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for danger of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: nationwide derivation and validation cohort examine.

and the provision of knowledge inside every nationwide dataset. To calculate the RRs for 36 particular person comorbidities (in England, Scotland, and Wales), separate fashions had been fitted. These fashions adjusted for all of the aforementioned variables apart from the variety of pre-existing comorbidities.

For each analyses, separate outcomes (log RRs and their customary errors) from every nation had been meta-analysed utilizing fixed-effect analyses with a generic inverse variance method.

24

  • Borenstein M
  • Hedges LV
  • Higgins JPT
  • Rothstein HR
A fundamental introduction to fixed-effect and random-effects fashions for meta-analysis.

All statistical analyses had been performed utilizing the statistical software program R: in England, R model 4.2.0 was used; in Northern Eire, R model 4.1.0 was used; in Scotland, R model 3.6.3 was used; and in Wales, R model 4.1.2 was used. Statistical analyses had been carried out in England by JO (and independently checked by SB and UA), in Northern Eire by LP (and independently checked by DTB), in Scotland by UA (and independently checked by CR), and in Wales by SB (and independently checked by FT).

Position of the funding supply

The funders of the examine had no position in examine design, knowledge assortment, knowledge evaluation, knowledge interpretation, or writing of the report.

Outcomes

16 208 600 people aged 18 years and older had acquired main doses of COVID-19 vaccines in England, Northern Eire, Scotland, or Wales between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, and had been adopted up till hospitalisation, demise, or the top of the examine interval. Amongst these people, 59 510 (0·4%; 8·8 occasions per 1000 person-years) had a extreme COVID-19 end result between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022. 7 589 080 people acquired main doses of BNT162b2 and eight 619 520 acquired main doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. The speed of extreme COVID-19 outcomes was greater amongst people who acquired the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (35 550 occasions on the price of 9·9 occasions per 1000 person-years) in contrast with people who had acquired the BNT162b2 vaccine (23 970 occasions on the price of seven·5 occasions per 1000 person-years). An in depth description of the traits of the entire inhabitants is proven in Table 1.

Desk 1Mixed pattern traits and charges of extreme COVID-19 outcomes for people who acquired main vaccine doses throughout England (N=11·4 million), Northern Eire (N=40 000), Scotland (N=3·1 million), and Wales (N=1·6 million)

Charges are per 1000 person-years.

There was an elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes 10 weeks after finishing the first doses of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (≥20 weeks vs 3–9 weeks; aRR 4·55 [95% CI 4·16–4·99]). People with a larger variety of comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 7·98 [7·73–8·24]; appendix p 11), who had been older (aged ≥80 years vs 18–49 years; 8·12 [7·89–8·35]), who had a better BMI (≥40 vs 18·5–24·9; 1·75 [1·69–1·82]), or who had been male (male vs feminine; 1·19 [1·17–1·21]) had been additionally related to elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes (figure 1, appendix pp 11–13). People with a historical past of SARS-CoV-2 an infection (contaminated ≥9 months earlier than the booster dose vs no earlier an infection) had been discovered to be at decreased danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes (0·38 [0·29–0·49]; figure 1, appendix pp 11–13). The chance of extreme COVID-19 decreased after receiving the booster dose (≥9 weeks after mRNA-1273 booster vs 3–9 weeks after finishing main schedule, aRR 0·54 [95% CI 0·48–0·60]; ≥9 weeks after BNT162b2 booster vs 3–9 weeks after main schedule, 0·80 [0·72–0·88]; figure 1, appendix pp 11–13).

Determine 1Pooled analyses of Poisson-adjusted price ratios for demographic and medical traits related to COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise amongst people who acquired main vaccine doses solely or subsequent booster

Show full caption

General estimates are proven and people stratified by kind of vaccine at second dose. As a consequence of small numbers of people with unknown socioeconmic deprivation standing and unknown urban-rural index, these knowledge had been omitted from this determine. *England and Wales. †England, Scotland, and Wales. ‡Northern Eire solely.

13 836 390 people acquired a booster vaccine of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 and had been adopted up till hospitalisation, demise, or the top of the examine interval on Feb 28, 2022. Within the interval after booster vaccination, 26 100 (0·2%; 7·6 occasions per 1000 person-years) people had extreme COVID-19 outcomes. 10 439 820 people acquired the booster dose of BNT162b2 and three 396 570 people acquired the booster dose of mRNA-1273, resulting in 2360 and 23 740 extreme COVID-19 outcomes, respectively. The speed of occasions amongst people who acquired mRNA-1273 (3·0 occasions per 1000 person-years) because the booster dose was decrease than that for people who acquired BNT162b2 (9·0 occasions per 1000 person-years) booster; an in depth description of the traits of the inhabitants is proven in table 2.

Desk 2Mixed pattern traits and charges of extreme COVID-19 outcomes for people who acquired a booster dose, throughout England (N=9·7 million), Northern Eire (N=24 000), Scotland (N=2·7 million), and Wales (N=1·4 million)

Charges are per 1000 person-years.

Danger elements related to extreme COVID-19 outcomes after receiving a booster dose had been much like these related to worse outcomes after completion of the first vaccination schedule. There was an elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes 9 weeks or extra after receiving a booster dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine (≥9 weeks vs 3–5 weeks; aRR 1·20 [95% CI 1·07–1·35]). People with a larger variety of comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07–9·97]), who had been older (aged ≥80 years vs 18–49 years; 3·60 [3·45–3·75]), or who had been male (male vs feminine; 1·23 [1·20–1·26]) had been additionally related to elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes.

There was a protecting impact amongst people with a historical past of SARS-CoV-2 an infection (contaminated ≥9 months earlier than booster dose vs no earlier an infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29–0·58]). People with growing multimorbidity had been related to elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes (two vs none, aRR 3·35 [95% CI 3·21–3·50]; three vs none, 4·78 [4·56–5·00]; 4 vs none, 6·34 [6·03–6·66]). Additional particulars are proven in table 3 and figure 2.

Desk 3Pooled analyses of Poisson-adjusted price ratios for demographic and medical traits related to COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise amongst people who acquired booster doses

General estimates are proven in addition to these stratified by kind of vaccine at second dose.

Figure thumbnail gr2

Determine 2Pooled analyses of Poisson-adjusted price ratios for demographic and medical traits related to COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise amongst people who acquired booster doses

Show full caption

General estimates are proven in addition to these stratified by kind of vaccine at booster dose. As a consequence of small numbers of people with unknown socioeconmic deprivation standing and unknown urban-rural index, these knowledge had been omitted from this determine. *England and Wales. †England, Scotland, and Wales. ‡Northern Eire solely.

The presence of any of the underlying situations of curiosity was related to an elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes. This danger was significantly excessive amongst these receiving immunosuppressants (sure vs no; aRR 5·80 [95% CI 5·53–6·09]), people with a historical past of a uncommon neurological situation (sure vs no; 5·30 [4·90–5·74]), and people with persistent kidney illness (persistent kidney illness stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90–4·74]; figure 3, appendix pp 14–16).

Figure thumbnail gr3

Determine 3Pooled analyses of Poisson-adjusted price ratios for particular medical danger elements related to COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise amongst people who acquired booster doses of mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2

Show full caption

Adjusted for non-clinical elements solely; reference class for every is absence of the situation. *England and Wales. †Wales solely. ‡England solely. §Scotland and Wales.

Dialogue

This UK-wide evaluation has recognized those that stay prone to extreme COVID-19 outcomes after the primary vaccine booster dose. Our findings recognized danger elements which were beforehand reported (eg, age and being immunosuppressed), however we additionally recognized a variety of extra danger teams and highlighted the substantial elevated danger posed by multimorbidity. These danger elements translated into each analyses in a dose-dependent method. Our outcomes confirmed that there have been advantages of the primary vaccine booster dose, indicated by the decreased price of extreme COVID-19 outcomes after booster doses, altering from 8·8 occasions per 1000 person-years (59 510 complete occasions) to 7·6 occasions per 1000 person-years (26 100 complete occasions). Though decrease, this danger continues to be considerable in public well being phrases, necessitating consideration of additional booster doses, starting with these at highest danger. These insights now must be factored into plans for the roll-out of the autumn COVID-19 booster programme and people who needs to be prioritised for COVID-19 therapeutics.

To our information, that is the primary nationwide examine within the UK to estimate and characterise the danger of extreme COVID-19 occasions within the UK inhabitants who’ve acquired a booster dose. Our evaluation has a number of key strengths. The information used had been based mostly on government-mandated reporting from NHS suppliers, which offered fast entry to knowledge on vaccination standing and medical outcomes from routinely collected digital well being data for round one-third of the inhabitants from England and nearly all the populations of Northern Eire, Scotland, and Wales.

18

  • Mulholland RH
  • Vasileiou E
  • Simpson CR
  • et al.
Cohort profile: Early Pandemic Analysis and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) Database.

, 

25

  • Vasileiou E
  • Simpson CR
  • Shi T
  • et al.
Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a nationwide potential cohort examine.

Our resolution to analyse population-based cohorts throughout totally different UK nations supplied the chance to fill knowledge gaps current in particular person nations (eg, HIV exceptionalism within the devolved administrations). Extra strengths included our capacity to regulate for a variety of covariates, and the pooling of knowledge from throughout the UK, thereby permitting for precision of estimates for teams of sufferers with uncommon situations. Confining our evaluation to the interval throughout which omicron was dominant was a further power.

Nonetheless, this examine is just not with out its limitations. These limitations embody endeavor work within the context of an evolving pandemic through which sublineages of omicron have emerged, challenges in harmonising a number of the danger teams throughout UK nations, and the danger of residual confounding. Chronologically, many of the inhabitants had been finishing their main vaccination schedule throughout two peaks of an infection, whereas booster doses had been rolled out when an infection numbers had been falling and the rising omicron variant was much less prone to trigger extreme outcomes in contaminated individuals.

4

  • Sheikh A
  • Kerr S
  • Woolhouse M
  • et al.
Severity of omicron variant of concern and effectiveness of vaccine boosters towards symptomatic illness in Scotland (EAVE II): a nationwide cohort examine with nested test-negative design.

Furthermore, a couple of of the sooner hospital admissions within the examine might need not been brought on by omicron, contemplating that no variant has ever been 100% dominant.

People who had been thought-about underweight by BMI (

26

  • Piernas C
  • Patone M
  • Astbury NM
  • et al.
Associations of BMI with COVID-19 vaccine uptake, vaccine effectiveness, and danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes after vaccination in England: a population-based cohort examine.

Our findings additionally counsel that every one teams aged 65 years and over had been at elevated danger of great outcomes relative to the reference group (aged 18–49 years), indicating the necessity to think about the second dose of booster in these older adults. Our evaluation is in settlement with findings from different work,

7

  • Bar-On YM
  • Goldberg Y
  • Mandel M
  • et al.
Safety of BNT162b2 vaccine booster towards Covid-19 in Israel.

, 

8

  • Barda N
  • Dagan N
  • Cohen C
  • et al.
Effectiveness of a 3rd dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for stopping extreme outcomes in Israel: an observational examine.

, 

9

  • Arbel R
  • Hammerman A
  • Sergienko R
  • et al.
BNT162b2 vaccine booster and mortality as a consequence of COVID-19.

which has proven discount in extreme COVID-19 outcomes after booster. Our findings counsel that there have been round 8 extreme COVID-19 occasions per 1000 person-years, which is greater than the determine reported in a examine in Israel.

7

  • Bar-On YM
  • Goldberg Y
  • Mandel M
  • et al.
Safety of BNT162b2 vaccine booster towards Covid-19 in Israel.

Nonetheless, the timeframe of this examine and that of Bar-On and colleagues

7

  • Bar-On YM
  • Goldberg Y
  • Mandel M
  • et al.
Safety of BNT162b2 vaccine booster towards Covid-19 in Israel.

was totally different. The elevated danger of an infection and extreme COVID-19 outcomes seen as time elapsed since completion of the first vaccination schedule was corrected by the booster, and this waning of vaccine effectiveness displays current reported work.

27

  • Rosenberg ES
  • Dorabawila V
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COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in New York State.

, 

28

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Two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine safety towards COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths over time: a retrospective, population-based cohort examine in Scotland and Brazil.

, 

29

  • Stuart ASV
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  • et al.
Immunogenicity, security, and reactogenicity of heterologous COVID-19 main vaccination incorporating mRNA, viral-vector, and protein-adjuvant vaccines within the UK (Com-COV2): a single-blind, randomised, part 2, non-inferiority trial.

Though this examine, alongside others,

30

  • Corridor V
  • Foulkes S
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Safety towards SARS-CoV-2 after COVID-19 vaccination and former an infection.

, 

31

  • Manisty C
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Antibody response to first BNT162b2 dose in beforehand SARS-CoV-2-infected people.

discovered that earlier SARS-CoV-2 an infection was related to a decreased danger of extreme COVID-19, there’s a caveat that an infection with totally different variants may not confer the identical diploma of safety, and the population-scale roll-out of booster vaccines has precluded evaluation of earlier immunity owing to logistical challenges, which means that boosting stays applicable amongst people with earlier SARS-CoV-2 an infection in the intervening time. Nonetheless, as additional proof accumulates, the danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes amongst people who had been beforehand contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 virus needs to be reassessed.

Our knowledge urged a decrease price of extreme COVID-19 outcomes in individuals who acquired mRNA-1273 in contrast with those that acquired BNT162b2. Our examine was not designed to research the comparative effectiveness of various boosters, so any obvious variations must be interpreted with care. Rising proof means that mRNA-1273 boosters may produce a stronger immune response, resulting in decrease charges of symptomatic an infection and extreme COVID-19 outcomes than BNT1261b2.

32

  • Wang L
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  • Xu R
Comparability of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 vaccines on breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, and demise in the course of the delta-predominant interval.

Our commentary of elevated danger 10 weeks after main vaccination is supported by earlier work,

33

  • Levin EG
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  • Cohen C
  • et al.
Waning immune humoral response to BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine over 6 months.

which confirmed that peak antibody responses had been seen within the first month after vaccination however then declined nearly four-fold over the next 10 weeks. Equally, post-booster antibody responses have been proven to peak, however immune waning then happens quickly, with one examine

34

  • Regev-Yochay G
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Efficacy of a fourth dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine towards omicron.

reporting a 5·5-fold lower in peak antibody titre inside 16 weeks. As a result of we didn’t have entry to serological knowledge inside this examine, we couldn’t decide if people with particular medical danger elements mounted a full immune response after a booster, however a earlier examine

35

  • Kearns P
  • Siebert S
  • Gaskell C
  • et al.
Analyzing the immunological results of COVID-19 vaccination in sufferers with situations probably resulting in diminished immune response capability–the OCTAVE trial.

has reported suboptimal immunological responses throughout lots of the teams recognized in our evaluation as being at elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes. Thus, there’s a want for follow-on work to research dangers of extreme COVID-19 outcomes after booster in those that have been proven to mount a full immunological response.

Our findings point out a variety of demographic and medical elements related to elevated medical danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes regardless of booster vaccination and lift questions concerning future approaches to boost safety. Elevated medical danger inside older individuals is just not sudden and is prone to mirror underlying frailty, comorbidity, and immune senescence. Certainly, this sample is seen with different respiratory viruses, regardless of the introduction of novel adjuvanted vaccine formulations. Immune senescence is a characteristic widespread to a number of danger teams and signifies that, regardless of robust immunogenicity, present COVID-19 vaccines can not ship equal safety to all people. Future approaches ought to goal to enhance vaccine immunogenicity and contain a variety of novel methods, together with variant-specific immunogenic brokers, introduction of viral proteins along with spike, and the incorporation of immunodominant mobile epitopes. Nonetheless, these approaches are unlikely to beat immune suppression in essentially the most susceptible teams and for that purpose extra approaches, equivalent to administration of anti-spike monoclonal antibodies and antivirals, also needs to be thought-about.

These findings have been shared with JCVI and the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Advisers of the UK nations and are actually being thought-about because the UK plans its autumn COVID-19 booster vaccine programme. This evaluation has helped to generate well timed insights that are actually getting used to assist establish and prioritise people more than likely to learn from second vaccine boosters and COVID-19 therapeutics. Coverage makers is not going to solely want to think about this proof (and some other proof) on danger teams, but in addition the logistical facets of administering booster doses to a considerable proportion of the UK’s inhabitants.

There’s a want to research immunological responses to vaccination in those that have been recognized as being at excessive danger after a primary booster dose. Our plan is to proceed to analyse knowledge on uptake and impression of second dose boosters because the vaccine programme proceeds.

In abstract, this UK-wide, population-based evaluation has discovered that people who acquired their first booster vaccination had been at decreased danger of COVID-19-related hospitalisation or demise in contrast with those that had solely accomplished their main vaccination schedule. Older age, these with a better variety of comorbid situations, and people with a variety of particular underlying situations had been, nevertheless, discovered to be at elevated danger of extreme COVID-19 outcomes and may significantly profit from extra, preferentially novel, COVID-19 boosters, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and COVID-19 therapeutics.

Contributors

AS, CRS, CR, and LR conceived the unique EAVE II examine. AS conceived this examine. UA and CMC led the writing of the paper and edited the ultimate manuscript with assist from AS, SB, ZG, and AA-L. SdL and MJ conceived how Analysis and Surveillance Centre knowledge might assist this examine and are the guarantors of those knowledge; JO carried out these analyses, JO; and SdL, MJ, and RSMT added the evaluation on knowledge from England to the paper. LP and DTB had been chargeable for knowledge cleansing, and LP contributed to the evaluation in Northern Eire. UA accessed and verified the underlying knowledge and is chargeable for knowledge cleansing and evaluation in Scotland. SB accessed and verified the underlying knowledge and is chargeable for knowledge cleansing and evaluation in Wales. CR oversaw all of the analyses. All authors contributed to the examine design and all authors contributed to drafting the paper and revised the manuscript for necessary mental content material. All authors have seen and authorised the ultimate textual content and gave remaining approval of the model to be printed.

Information sharing

Declaration of pursuits

AS and CR are members of the Scottish Authorities Chief Medical Officer’s COVID-19 Advisory Group. AS is a member of the Scottish Authorities’s Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness, the UK Authorities’s New and Rising Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (referred to as NERVTAG) Danger Stratification Subgroup, the Division of Well being and Social Care’s COVID-19 Therapeutics Modelling Group, and was a member of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Strategic Thrombocytopenia Taskforce. All AS’s roles are unfunded. CMC reviews analysis funding from the Medical Analysis Council, Well being Information Analysis UK, the Nationwide Institute for Well being and Care Analysis, and the Scottish Chief Scientist Workplace. SVK was Co-Chair of the Scottish Authorities’s Knowledgeable Reference Group on COVID-19 and ethnicity and is a member of the SAGE subgroup on ethnicity. SVK acknowledges funding from an NRS Senior Medical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Analysis Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Authorities Chief Scientist Workplace (SPHSU17). CR is a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Medicines and Healthcare merchandise Regulatory Company Vaccine Profit and Danger Working Group. SdL acquired funding by way of his college for vaccine-related analysis from AstraZeneca, GSK, Sanofi, Seqirus, and Takeda. He has been a member of advisory boards for AstraZeneca, Sanofi, and Seqirus, and is Director of the Analysis and Surveillance Centre. All different authors declare no competing pursuits.

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Nationwide Core Research–Immunity group. This analysis is a part of the Information and Connectivity Nationwide Core Research, led by Well being Information Analysis UK in partnership with the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics and funded by UK Analysis and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20060), with assist from the DaC-VaP-2 examine additionally funded by UK Analysis and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20058). The examine entitled “Use of nationwide linked well being care, serological knowledge, and viral genomic knowledge to establish and characterise post-third and -booster dose vaccine breakthroughs at a inhabitants stage” is a partnership between the College of Edinburgh, Swansea College, Oxford College, Queen’s College of Belfast, College of St Andrews, and The Workplace for Nationwide Statistics. The authors wish to acknowledge all different venture collaborators not concerned in these analyses however who’re contributing to wider discussions and previous outputs. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Analysis Council (MR/R008345/1) with the assist of BREATHE–The Well being Information Analysis Hub for Respiratory Well being (MC_PC_19004), which is funded by way of the UK Analysis and Innovation Industrial Technique Problem Fund and is delivered by way of Well being Information Analysis UK. Extra assist has been offered by way of Public Well being Scotland and Scottish Authorities Director-Basic Well being and Social Care. We thank Dave Kelly from Albasoft for his assist with making main care knowledge accessible, and James Pickett, Wendy Inglis-Humphrey, Vicky Hammersley, Maria Georgiou, Laura Gonzalez Rienda, Pam McVeigh, Amanda Burridge, Sumedha Asnani-Chetal, and Afshin Dastafshan for his or her assist with venture administration and administration. We acknowledge the assist of the EAVE II Affected person Advisory Group. We thank the sufferers and observe of the Analysis and Surveillance Centre who permit knowledge sharing, and EMIS, TPP, Cegedim, and Wellbeing for assist with pseudonymised knowledge extraction. Rachel Byford and the ORCHID knowledge staff extracted these knowledge, and Sneha N Anand venture managed. We additionally acknowledge the assistance from Paul Moss and Samantha Lycett for in answering the evaluations. The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance offered by the workers of the Sincere Dealer Service throughout the Enterprise Providers Organisation Northern Eire (BSO). The Sincere Dealer Service is funded by the BSO and the Division of Well being for Northern Eire. The authors alone are chargeable for the interpretation of the information and any views or opinions introduced are solely these of the authors and don’t essentially signify these of the BSO.

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Article Information

Publication Historical past

Revealed: 15 October 2022

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01656-7

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© 2022 The Writer(s). Revealed by Elsevier Ltd.

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Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) |

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  • Prioritisation of COVID-19 boosters within the omicron period
    • Vaccines are a primary component of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Up until August, 2022, all available COVID-19 vaccines targeted only the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2. Emergence of the highly transmissible omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in November, 2021, has been associated with reduced effectiveness of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines against infection.1 Omicron and other variants of concern pose substantial challenges to optimising COVID-19 vaccination strategies. Thankfully, a growing body of literature shows that a COVID-19 vaccine booster dose protects against symptomatic omicron infection1,2 and against hospitalisation with omicron infection, although protection is lower with more recently emerging omicron sublineages (ie, BA.4 and BA.5) compared with earlier variants.

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