President Biden and Donald Trump are on the cusp of securing their respective presidential nominations, setting the stage for a highly anticipated rematch in Georgia during the general election. At present, Trump holds a slender lead over Mr. Biden among likely voters, with a three-point margin that falls within the margin of error. This advantage can be attributed to a handful of individuals who had previously voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 now shifting their support to Trump. Additionally, positive perceptions regarding the impact of Trump’s policies on the financial well-being of Georgians have played a role in bolstering his position.
In his State of the Union address, the president emphasized the threat to democracy within the country. While this message may strike a chord with Democrats, voters in Georgia are more inclined to believe that it is Trump rather than Mr. Biden who would bolster U.S. democracy. Surprisingly, Mr. Biden’s approval ratings on this matter are actually in the negative, with a third of his own supporters expressing doubt that his second-term policies would have any significant impact.
Many of Trump’s supporters, who still hold onto the belief of widespread voter fraud in Georgia during the 2020 election, are the driving force behind his stance on democracy. Additionally, Trump’s backers often argue that the charges and indictments against him are politically motivated, further solidifying their support for him on matters of democracy.
Democrats are also working to increase the importance of abortion access following the Dobbs decision, ensuring that it remains a key issue for voters. While a majority of Georgia voters support legal abortions in the state, not all of them align with the Democratic party. Approximately 30% of these voters currently favor Trump over Biden, making them an important demographic to monitor as the campaign progresses.
Many people believe that Mr. Biden is not giving enough attention to inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border. Interestingly, these concerns are closely linked to voting intentions. Those who voted for Biden in 2020 but feel that he is not adequately addressing these issues are more likely to support Trump now compared to those who think Mr. Biden’s focus is appropriate.
Persuasion and turnout
Georgia experienced a significant shift in the 2020 election as it turned blue for the first time in many years. However, this victory was by a narrow margin, with Mr. Biden surpassing Trump by less than 12,000 votes, equivalent to roughly a quarter of a percentage point.
Early on, a turnout gap is becoming apparent, which means that the upcoming campaign will not only require persuasion, but also motivation. It is worth noting that Republicans and Trump 2020 voters are more inclined than Democrats and Biden 2020 voters to state that they will “definitely” vote.
Republicans are currently giving more thought to the race than Democrats.
Most voters in this area are already thinking about the presidential race extensively, possibly because of the ongoing primaries. Additionally, the overwhelming majority of voters are intending to participate in the upcoming fall elections. As a result, it is expected that the 2024 electorate will consist of a slightly larger proportion of voters who supported Trump in 2020.
Moreover, there is a growing number of Biden supporters who are considering voting for the opposing party compared to Trump supporters. It is important to note that these voters make up a small portion of the overall electorate but have significant influence. Furthermore, Trump’s current lead can be attributed more to persuasion efforts rather than variations in voter turnout.
Trump indictments
The majority of Trump’s supporters would still view him as suitable for the presidency even if he were ultimately proven guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 election. This sentiment is also shared among Trump’s primary voters in recent GOP nominating contests. However, approximately one in five of his supporters in Georgia express that they would not consider him fit if he were found guilty by a court.
The question remains: would a conviction, if it were to occur, have any impact on people’s opinions? The evidence suggests a mixed response. Trump supporters who claim they would not deem him suitable for the role do not hold favorable views of Mr. Biden either. They also harbor concerns regarding Mr. Biden’s mental and physical capabilities. Consequently, this demographic may find themselves choosing between two individuals whom they perceive as unfit for the position, albeit for varying reasons.
Overall, voters throughout the state have varied opinions on the charges against Trump. There is a slightly greater inclination to believe that the charges are politically motivated rather than a genuine attempt to overturn the election. However, the majority of voters assert that if he were found guilty, they would not consider him suitable for the presidency.
Who is switching?
The suburbs around Atlanta, known for their diversity, have undergone a noticeable shift in political leanings. These areas were crucial to Mr. Biden’s victory four years ago, but now, they appear to be leaning towards Trump.
Trump’s support among voters of color has seen a slight improvement. Although these gains are modest and Mr. Biden still maintains a significant lead among them, any potential shift from blue to red holds significance in a closely contested race.
Most Black voters believe that Trump is actively trying to gain their support. In Georgia, Black voters make up nearly a third of the electorate, and currently, 17% of them are choosing Trump over Biden. Although this is only a modest improvement from Trump’s showing in 2020, it is crucial for Biden to maintain significant support among this key group in order to secure victory in the state. The behavior of Black voters is closely monitored because if more of them were to switch their support or if a considerable portion of Black voters lacked motivation to turn out this year, it would be much more challenging for the president to replicate his performance from the previous election.
Aside from voters of color, voters under 50 and men who voted for Mr. Biden four years ago are more likely to be considering switching to Trump. We also see a higher prevalence of switching to Trump among self-described moderates and independents, as well as voters who believe that Mr. Biden winning wouldn’t impact the strength of U.S. democracy.
According to our data, the Biden campaign faces several challenges moving forward. One of these challenges is the need to mobilize more voters within the key segments of their 2020 coalition. The goal is to encourage these voters to not only turn out but also support the president once again, or at the very least, vote against Trump. However, these challenges become even more formidable if swing voters are primarily concerned with issues such as inflation and their personal finances, rather than the broader themes of democracy and rights.
Voters in Georgia have a generally positive outlook on the state’s economy, which sets it apart from the national economic sentiment. In addition, Governor Brian Kemp is highly regarded by voters, with approximately two-thirds approving of his performance. Surprisingly, even around half of Democratic voters approve of the job he is doing.
