Russia’s response to Friday’s terror attack in Moscow has the potential to sever ties with one of its old allies.
Gunmen opened fire inside the Crocus City Hall music venue, killing 137 people and injuring at least 145 others, according to Russian officials.
ISIS-K, a branch of the Islamic State group, took credit for the attack. The United States also claimed that the group was behind the attack, citing intelligence.
According to Russian official media, four of the accused are Tajik citizens.
Tajikistan, a Central Asian republic, has strong historical ties to Russia and was once part of the Soviet Union. It is presently a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has long hoped would function as the member countries’ equivalent of NATO.
The notion that the attackers were Tajiks could raise tensions between the country and Russia.
Tajikistan has already attempted to distance itself from the attacks.
The Russian foreign ministry confirmed Saturday that accusations that Russian citizens were participating were “fake,” according to The Moscow Times.
The country’s interior minister also stated that two of the suspects first identified by Russian media were in Tajikistan at the time of the incident, according to The Moscow Times.
Meanwhile, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon informed Putin on Sunday that “terrorists have no nationality, homeland, or religion,” according to his office.
While its ties with China and North Korea may have strengthened, Russia has become increasingly isolated on the global stage since launching its full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Even long-standing friends with tight cultural and economic ties, such as Tajikistan, have expressed their dissatisfaction.
In October 2022, Rahmon appeared to rebuke Putin in front of him, demanding respect for his country.
According to Mail Online, Rahmon claimed that Tajikistan had to “beg” Russia to attend a forum in Tajikistan. “They never treat us as strategic partners!” he said. He expressed his desire for respect.
Russia’s relations with other CSTO members are also deteriorating, with experts on Russia and post-Soviet republics earlier telling Business Insider that the alliance was collapsing.
According to some of these analysts, CSTO members looked at the invasion of Ukraine and concluded that Russia was no longer capable of protecting them and may even decide to attack them.
Earlier this year, Armenia’s president announced that the country had discontinued its membership in the CSTO after repeatedly criticizing it and Russia.
The fact that the attackers were Tajik citizens does not rule out the possibility of ISIS involvement. Neither ISIS nor the US have commented on the attackers’ nationality, and The Guardian reported that ISIS is recruiting in the country.
Russia is also making a concerted effort to blame Ukrainian involvement. Putin stated over the weekend that the terrorists were fleeing to Ukraine following the incident and that Kyiv was assisting them.
Ukraine denies its involvement in the incident.
Russia analysts predicted that when the attack began, Putin would try to blame Ukraine in order to dodge accountability and rally support for his war.
Experts also believe that ISIS took advantage of Russia’s distraction with the situation in Ukraine. Vera Mironova, an associate scholar at Harvard University’s Davis Center, told the Financial Times that, as a result, ISIS saw Moscow as a relatively accessible target.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia might have halted the attack if it had not attacked Ukraine.
“Those hundreds of thousands of Russians who are now killing on Ukrainian land would surely be enough to stop any terrorists,” he went on to say.
