The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, which is widely trusted for tracking murder counts in the US, has some significant limitations. More than 7,000 police departments do not contribute data, and recent changes in data gathering processes have resulted in gaps from major departments like New York City and Los Angeles. However, AH Datalytics, a data analysis firm, provides insights that could potentially offer a more accurate picture.
According to Jeff Asher, a former CIA employee and head of AH Datalytics, the United States is expected to experience a significant decrease in murders in 2023. Asher predicts a historic drop of 2,000 murders, which would be the largest decline in a single year. This trend is not limited to specific locations, as it is observed in cities of all sizes, suburbs, and rural areas, indicating a national phenomenon.
Although major cities continue to experience a significant number of murders, there has been an overall decrease in such incidents. The analysis highlights Chicago as the leader in terms of the number of murders, with a total of 599. However, it is worth noting that this figure represents a 13% decrease compared to the previous year. Following Chicago, Philadelphia recorded 409 murders, showing a 21% decrease, while New York reported 380 murders, indicating an 11% decrease. Los Angeles and Houston both recorded 377 murders, experiencing a 15% and 11% decrease respectively. Therefore, while Chicago ranks highest in terms of murder count, there has been a noticeable decline in such incidents across major cities.
It is important to note that the seriousness of the murder issue in Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia is amplified by their smaller population sizes when compared to cities like New York and LA. Specifically, Chicago experiences a high concentration of homicides in certain police districts, which can be attributed to gang violence and drug-related incidents, ultimately leading to its elevated murder rate.
The data brings a sense of optimism for the year 2023, but the future remains uncertain for 2024.
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