According to the latest betting odds, Joe Biden is currently ahead of Donald Trump in four swing states.
According to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can place yes or no bets on world events, the incumbent president is projected to secure victories over Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, in November’s vote in Pennsylvania (with 58 percent support compared to 42 percent), Nevada (with 58 percent support compared to 41 percent), Michigan (with 57 percent support compared to 44 percent), and Wisconsin (with 52 percent support compared to 47 percent).
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden emerged victorious in all of these states. However, these states are widely recognized as battleground states, meaning they have the potential to swing either way when voters head to the polls in November. To gather additional insights, Newsweek reached out to representatives for both Trump and Biden, seeking their comments via email.
In 2016, Trump’s triumphs in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin played a crucial role in securing his victory in the presidential race. However, his margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in these three states amounted to just 83,161 votes combined.
In contrast, Biden’s victory in 2020 saw him win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by a total of 255,425 votes, surpassing Trump’s margin of victory by more than triple. Among these three states, Wisconsin stood out as the closest race, with Biden securing a narrow lead of 20,682 votes, making it the only state decided by less than 1 percentage point.
According to recent data from the platform, there have been a series of encouraging polls for the Democratic candidate. Nationally, the platform indicates that the president has a 45 percent probability of winning the election, while Trump’s chances stand at 44 percent.
In a surprising turn of events, the betting company, Polymarket, has predicted a victory for Biden for the first time. Previously, in February, they had given Trump a 54 percent chance of securing another term in the White House, while Biden trailed behind at 33 percent.
According to a recent survey conducted by Echelon Insights for The Heritage Foundation, it was found that in five swing states, including three states where Polymarket predicted Biden’s lead, Trump was leading Biden. The survey, which involved 2,401 registered voters and was conducted between March 12-19, provides interesting insights into the political landscape.
According to the poll, Trump is leading in five states: Arizona (51 percent to 45 percent), Georgia (52 percent to 42 percent), Michigan (51 percent to 45 percent), Nevada (51 percent to 44 percent), and Pennsylvania (49 percent to 45 percent). The margin of error for the poll was +/- 2.3 percentage points.
In Wisconsin, Biden was found to be leading Trump by 47 percent to 46 percent, according to this survey.
The Biden campaign recently unveiled its intention to establish 44 field offices in Wisconsin, demonstrating a strong commitment to the state. Additionally, the campaign has already launched 14 offices in Pennsylvania, with plans to open 30 more in Michigan. In contrast, Trump’s campaign has been relatively quiet about its campaign strategy, providing fewer details about its office presence.
According to an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, Heath Brown, the swing state polling results may bring good news for Biden. In a previous interview with Newsweek, Brown emphasized that the race between the candidates remains “very close.”
