The National Weather Service has forecasted that California will experience dry conditions until Thursday. During this time, the temperatures will remain relatively mild, reaching the low to mid-60s in lower elevations.
Confidence is growing for a significant shift as a substantial rain system is expected to impact the region starting on Friday and extending into the early part of the following week.
Ensemble models indicate that there is an upper-level trough in the Pacific that is moving towards the West Coast and extending into the western United States. It is expected that moisture from the tropics, located west of Hawaii, will flow through California, which could potentially lead to the formation of a low-end atmospheric river.
Ensemble model guidance suggests that there is a dynamic moisture tap, which is bringing plumes of moisture to the central California coast and quickly moving south towards Baja California.
Another plume is predicted to do the same.
According to the current forecast, there will be periods of moderate to heavy rain starting from Friday and continuing through the weekend, lasting until the following Tuesday.
Early estimates suggest that there will be substantial rainfall in various regions. The Bay Area and Central Coast valleys are projected to receive 1.5-3 inches of rain, while the North Bay valleys may see 3-5 inches. In the coastal ranges, including localized areas, rainfall amounts could reach 4-6 inches, with the possibility of even higher totals up to 8 inches. It’s worth mentioning that these estimates may be subject to further refinement as the week unfolds.