President Biden’s reelection campaign is considering North Carolina as a potential state to win in the 2024 election. In the previous election, former President Trump only managed to secure a narrow victory in this state.
The Biden campaign recognizes that it will require persistent effort to connect with every voter before November. The Tar Heel State presents a promising opportunity, particularly with a gubernatorial race that could provide a boost for Biden.
However, strategists are skeptical about the feasibility of that goal. They point out that the state of [state] hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 2008 and supported Trump in his last two presidential campaigns.
According to GOP strategist Doug Heye, although it is still a goal to achieve, the state is undoubtedly up for grabs. Heye expressed confidence in Trump’s chances of winning and even mentioned that if he were to place a bet, he would wager on Trump emerging victorious.
North Carolina is a key component of the Biden campaign’s plan to secure the necessary electoral votes to reach the 270 threshold. This strategy focuses on crucial swing states, including the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as western battlegrounds like Nevada and Arizona. Additionally, southern states such as Georgia and North Carolina are also part of this crucial pathway.
North Carolina is part of a $30 million six-week advertising campaign that was announced after the State of the Union address. The campaign plans to spend a significant amount in battleground states. In an effort to connect with Black North Carolinians, a crucial voting group, Biden conducted radio interviews in Fayetteville and Charlotte around Super Tuesday. These interviews were aimed at reaching out to this important faction and securing another victory.
On March 26, Biden and Vice President Harris will be heading to North Carolina as part of their mission to visit every battleground state this month.
According to Dory MacMillan, the North Carolina communications director for the Biden campaign, the people of North Carolina are aware that President Biden is fighting for their interests. In contrast, Donald Trump is seen as fighting for billionaires, corporations, and an extreme agenda that negatively impacts families and the economy. The Biden campaign is committed to reaching out to every corner of the state to reject Trump’s attacks on families and work towards another four years of progress with President Biden.
The Biden campaign currently possesses a substantial $155 million fund, and while investment in infrastructure and campaign expenditure is crucial, strategists believe that the governor’s race in North Carolina can significantly contribute to Biden’s success. Notably, the inclusion of far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson on the ballot is expected to play a significant role.
According to Michael LaRosa, the traveling press secretary for first lady Jill Biden during the 2020 campaign, the Democratic candidate in North Carolina has a strong advantage this time around. LaRosa believes that the weak Republican gubernatorial candidate, combined with demographic shifts and a well-coordinated campaign, will provide the Biden team with a better opportunity to win the state.
In the previous election, Trump narrowly defeated Biden in North Carolina with a margin of less than 1 percentage point. The last time a Democrat emerged victorious in a presidential race in the state was when then-Democratic nominee Barack Obama won, but he subsequently lost his bid for re-election to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney by a 2 percentage point margin. Trump secured North Carolina’s electoral votes in 2016, when he first ran for the presidency, defeating Hillary Clinton by a comfortable margin of nearly 4 points.
According to a collection of polls, Trump currently holds a 7.4 point lead over Biden in North Carolina. This lead is greater than what the former president has achieved in other key swing states.
In 2024, North Carolina might witness a split-ticket scenario. Although Trump emerged victorious in the state in 2020, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was reelected for a second term. This suggests a potential outcome where Josh Stein, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, secures a victory while Trump carries North Carolina.
With the lineup of Republican candidates, Democrats see North Carolina as a promising battleground worth investing their efforts in.
“It’s a wise decision,” remarked Ivan Zapien, a former official at the Democratic National Committee. “The Republicans have chosen some down-ballot candidates who are unlikely to fare well in the suburbs, considering the recent performance of suburban areas in past election cycles. The timing is perfect for a potential gain.”
Democrats admit that they face a challenging task ahead.
According to LaRosa, North Carolina is in a prime position to flip in the upcoming election, but it is important to remember that it is still North Carolina.
Republicans, such as Heye, a North Carolina native, argue that the state is not a foregone conclusion, considering the changes in its demographics.
According to the expert, there is a slim possibility that the Democrats could emerge victorious in the state due to its close margin and rapid expansion, particularly in the regions of Charlotte and Raleigh along with their surrounding suburbs.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court in 2022 led to unexpected results for Democrats, thanks to the increasing presence of young, professional suburban women in growing areas like Charlotte and Raleigh. These women played a significant role in supporting the party and its pro-choice stance.
North Carolina is home to 11 historically Black colleges and universities, making it a crucial voting bloc for black voters.
According to Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, North Carolina can be compared to Georgia, a state that played a crucial role in securing Biden’s victory in 2020. One of the key factors that contributed to Biden’s success in Georgia was the support he received from Black voters.
According to the expert, North Carolina and Georgia are both gaining a significant number of college-educated voters who are crucial for the Democratic Party. Although Georgia has a larger African American voter base, which played a key role in the 2020 election, North Carolina is emerging as a state where Democrats have a strong chance of prevailing.
