ai express – According to a recent poll, Rep. Andy Kim has emerged as the frontrunner for the Senate seat in New Jersey, holding a significant lead over his main competitor, first lady Tammy Murphy. This development positions Rep. Andy Kim as the top candidate for the Senate race in New Jersey.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University survey marks a significant milestone as the first public independent poll conducted during the campaign to find a replacement for Senator Bob Menendez, who is currently facing indictment but has not yet made his intentions clear regarding seeking reelection. The survey focused on 504 likely primary voters and explored the popularity and support for Menendez, as well as three declared candidates – Kim, Murphy, and labor leader Patricia Campos Medina.
According to the poll, Kim received 32 percent support, while Murphy received 20 percent. Menendez, who has seen a decline in popularity due to the recent indictments accusing him of exchanging favors for money and acting as an unregistered agent for the Egyptian government, was the preferred choice of 9 percent. Campos Medina, on the other hand, received 8 percent support.
Lawrence Hamm, an activist, was not tested, along with a few other minor candidates.
As an active participant in government affairs, Murphy, who serves as the first lady, has garnered extensive support from the Democratic establishment. Her strong ties have positioned her favorably in New Jersey’s distinct “county line” system, granting her advantageous ballot placement in crucial Democratic counties. Furthermore, her recent campaign finance reports demonstrate her prowess as a fundraiser. Since joining the race in mid-November, she has raised an impressive $3.2 million in donations. In comparison, Kim raised $1.7 million throughout the entire fourth quarter, which commenced on October 1.
Kim’s campaign has garnered strong support from the progressive base, which is comprised of individuals who are dissatisfied with the party boss system that had previously backed Menendez prior to his indictment in September. This system grants considerable influence to candidates who are endorsed by numerous county party chairs, ultimately leading to their inclusion on the ballots in those respective counties. It is worth noting that this method of ballot design is unique to New Jersey, as no other states employ such a system, thereby affording county chairs a significant level of influence, particularly during primary elections.
According to poll director Dan Cassino, institutional support typically suffices to secure a primary victory in New Jersey. He states, “With Murphy’s decline, this election will determine whether county organizations still possess the influence to select a candidate.”
Among the primary voters who are familiar with Kim and have formed an opinion about him, the overwhelming majority view him favorably. A total of 38 percent approve of him, while a mere 2 percent disapprove. On the other hand, Murphy enjoys higher levels of name recognition, with 68 percent of primary voters being familiar with her. Of those, 29 percent approve of her, while 14 percent disapprove. In stark contrast, Menendez’s approval rating stands at a meager 22 percent, with a significant 68 percent disapproving – many of them expressing strong disapproval. As for Campos-Medina, she remains relatively unknown among voters.
Support for the candidates varies based on racial backgrounds.
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Kim holds a significant advantage over Murphy when it comes to white voters, with 47 percent supporting Kim compared to Murphy’s 15 percent. Among Asian voters, Kim also maintains a lead, with 34 percent supporting Kim and 24 percent supporting Murphy. However, Murphy leads among Black likely primary voters, with 24 percent supporting him compared to Kim’s 16 percent. Similarly, Murphy holds a lead among Hispanic voters, with 26 percent supporting him and only 10 percent supporting Kim. Menendez and Campos-Medina both perform better among Hispanic voters than Kim.
According to Cassino, the main battle is between white liberals, who are predominantly supporting Kim, and moderate Black and Hispanic voters, who are rallying behind Murphy. Cassino states that Kim has historically positioned himself as a centrist candidate. However, due to their dissatisfaction with the county organizations, liberal voters have embraced Kim as part of their own.
A recent poll, conducted by Braun Research, based in Princeton, collected data through a combination of live-caller telephone interviews and text-to-web surveys. The survey took place from January 21 to January 28. It is important to note that the margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
