According to preliminary exit poll results from the Republican primary in Ohio, around 20 to 30 percent of Republican primary voters still oppose Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy. Interestingly, among those who support Nikki Haley, nearly half of them state that they would vote for Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
According to initial exit poll data, a majority of voters remain loyal to Trump. However, the level of internal party challenges could play a significant role in the closely contested November election. Even though Trump has secured the nomination, 20% of Ohio GOP primary voters express dissatisfaction with him as the nominee. Additionally, 22% believe that he lacks the temperament to effectively serve, and 28% say that he would not be suitable for office if convicted of a crime.
At the end of the day, 18% of respondents express their unwillingness to support Trump in the upcoming November elections. Among this group, 10% indicate a preference for Biden, while 8% state that they wouldn’t vote for either candidate. On a national scale, 6% of Republicans voted for Biden in the 2020 elections. The potential nonparticipation of certain Republicans poses an additional risk for Trump’s campaign.
Many of the criticisms directed towards Trump stem from those who initially supported Haley but remained engaged in the political process even after she withdrew from the race. (It is worth noting that absentee voting in Ohio began on February 21, two weeks before Haley suspended her campaign.) Among these supporters, a substantial 88% express dissatisfaction with Trump as the nominee, while 91% believe he lacks the temperament required for office. Additionally, 88% assert that he would be unfit if convicted. A significant majority, 80%, state that they would not vote for him in the general election. Instead, 47% indicate a preference for Biden, while 32% express their unwillingness to vote for either candidate. Only 18% of Haley voters claim they would vote for Trump in the upcoming fall election.
According to preliminary exit poll results, a significant portion of Haley voters, 60%, believe that the Republican Party is “too conservative.” Similarly, 19% of GOP primary voters share this sentiment. It is worth noting that only 42% of Republican voters identify themselves as being part of the MAGA movement, consistent with trends observed in previous races this year.
Tuesday’s election will serve as a litmus test for yet another aspect of Trump’s influence – the success of his favored candidate, Bernie Moreno, in securing the party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate.
In a showdown against the state’s GOP establishment, Moreno, a car dealership and blockchain business owner, is backed by Trump. He is up against state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose father owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The ultimate victor will go head-to-head with incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in the upcoming fall. Trump showed his support for Moreno at a rally in Dayton, where he criticized Dolan for not being conservative enough.
According to preliminary exit poll results, Moreno may have a significant advantage. A whopping 79% of Senate primary voters approve of Trump’s performance as president, with 59% expressing strong approval. Additionally, 71% of voters consider it important for the next U.S. senator from the state to support Trump, with 55% deeming it very important. Among those who prioritize Trump’s support, Moreno holds a commanding lead over Dolan, leading by a margin of 45 percentage points.
The composition of the state’s GOP electorate played a crucial role in the Senate race, particularly the percentage of white evangelical Christians. This group has been a key base for Trump in previous primaries this year, along with strong conservatives. Moreno outperformed Dolan by 30 points among white evangelicals, 39 points among those who are dissatisfied with the country’s direction (another key Trump constituency), 44 points among very conservative voters, and 45 points among those who strongly support Trump’s performance as president.
Moreno, similar to Trump, garnered significant support from voters without a four-year college degree, constituting 55% of the voter turnout. On the other hand, Dolan emerged as the favored candidate among moderates, particularly those seeking a senator who is not closely associated with Trump.
GOP voters lean conservative, as evidenced by their stance on various issues. According to initial findings, a significant 72% of GOP voters support the deportation of most unauthorized immigrants. Additionally, 61% express enthusiasm or satisfaction with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that eliminated the constitutional right to abortion. Moreover, 50% indicate their willingness to support a federal law that would ban all or most abortions across the nation. It is worth noting that in a statewide ballot initiative held last year, Ohioans voted 57-43% in favor of protecting abortion rights in the state constitution.
Preliminary exit poll results showed that Moreno performed exceptionally well among those who support deportations and oppose abortion, while Dolan gained strong support from those who hold opposing views.
In the presidential race, voters who support Haley have distinct differences from Trump’s supporters on key issues. Only 40% of Haley voters support deporting most unauthorized immigrants, compared to a larger percentage of Trump supporters. Additionally, 37% of Haley voters are enthusiastic or satisfied with the abortion ruling, while 19% favor a federal abortion ban. These numbers highlight the fundamental gaps between the Trump and Haley camps when it comes to their stances on these issues.
