For the past two decades, engineer Dale Link has been providing a comprehensive hurricane forecast for the United States and other parts of the world. Instead of predicting the number of hurricanes in a season, his forecast focuses on identifying the areas with a 50-50 chance of experiencing a landfall from these storms.
In January, he releases these forecasts as an early warning, identifying different zones for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024. Texas and the east coast of Florida are among the zones highlighted.
According to Dale, he has an accuracy rate of 81%, although it’s important to note that the accuracy of forecasts can vary from year to year.
Here are the tracks from last year, and it’s clear that they were quite similar. While there was a tropical storm Harold in the vicinity, South Texas wasn’t directly affected. Although it was a relatively insignificant event, you can judge for yourself how accurate Dale’s forecast was. Personally, I believe it was quite reasonable!
Dale has a straightforward approach to forecasting. He examines the tracks of all tropical disturbances, depressions, storms, and hurricanes over the past one to two years. By carefully observing these tracks from start to finish, he can predict that they will be followed again in the near future. For more information on Dale’s forecasting technique, you can visit his webpage, where he provides access to his previous forecasts and methodology.
HEADS UP FROM EL NINO!
The latest predictions for our ongoing powerful El Nino indicate that it will transition to a neutral phase by next August/September. This is an important alert because an El Nino typically deters hurricanes from approaching Texas.
In my previous blog post, I discussed the correlation between hurricanes and The Hunger Games.
We are definitely more vulnerable without El Nino. Take a look at the latest forecast and keep an eye on El Nino’s downward trend, indicated by the darker purple line.
According to this forecast (which tends to be quite accurate), El Nino will have dissipated by the peak of the hurricane season.
Yes, I’m aware that it’s only January 3rd and it may seem early to discuss the upcoming hurricane season. However, as weather enthusiasts, we are always vigilant and tracking any potential developments. It’s just part of our nature!
Expect a few dry days ahead, but be prepared for rain on Friday morning.
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